England & Wales · Official statistics · Data to March 2025
Immigration and crime:
what the data shows
A population-adjusted analysis of prison population shares and violent crime rates for UK and non-UK nationals, drawn from Ministry of Justice and ONS official data.
Foreign nationals
12.4%
of the prison population
Non-UK nationals
12%
of the adult population
Note on categories: Prison data records nationality (citizenship); population denominators use separate nationality and place-of-birth measures. These overlap but are not the same group. Foreign-born residents - including naturalised British citizens - make up 18% of the UK population, a broader category than non-UK nationals (12%).
Prison population
Population share comparison
Share of prison population vs. share of adult population
Source: MoJ Prison Population Statistics, Table 1.3 (March 2025); ONS Annual Population Survey 2024.
View as data table
| Group | Prison population share | Adult population share | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK nationals | 87.6% | 88.0% | −0.4 pp |
| Non-UK nationals | 12.4% | 12.0% | +0.4 pp |
Violent crime rates
Convictions and imprisonment rates
Violence imprisonment rate per 100,000 adults (2024–25, indicative)
Indicative estimates derived from MoJ imprisonment share data and ONS population denominators. Figures are not directly published rates - see caveats. Source: MoJ Offender Management Statistics 2024–25.
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| Group | Violence imprisonment rate per 100,000 adults (approx.) |
|---|---|
| UK nationals | ~42 |
| Non-UK nationals | ~28 |
Long-term trends in violence imprisonment (2015–2025, indicative)
Indicative estimates derived from annual MoJ data and ONS population estimates. The 2020 dip reflects reduced court throughput during COVID-19 restrictions.
View as data table
| Year | UK nationals (per 100,000) | Non-UK nationals (per 100,000) |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 44 | 32 |
| 2016 | 43 | 31 |
| 2017 | 42 | 30 |
| 2018 | 41 | 29 |
| 2019 | 40 | 28 |
| 2020 | 35 | 23 |
| 2021 | 37 | 25 |
| 2022 | 40 | 27 |
| 2023 | 41 | 28 |
| 2024 | 42 | 28 |
| 2025 | 42 | 28 |
Conclusion
What the data shows
Official England & Wales statistics show that non-UK nationals hold a 12.4% share of the prison population - nearly identical to their 12% share of the adult population. When violence imprisonment rates are calculated per 100,000 adults rather than as raw totals, the non-UK national rate is lower than the UK national rate, not higher.
These findings are consistent with published research from the Migration Observatory (University of Oxford), which found no clear evidence of overrepresentation in violent crime once population size is taken into account.
This does not mean all nationality groups are identical, nor that migration has no relationship to any crime type. Important confounders are not controlled for here - including age structure (migrants skew working-age and male, which affects base rates), socioeconomic background, offence type, and migration route. A full causal analysis would require more granular data than is publicly available from MoJ or ONS.
The foreign-born population (18% of the total) is a broader group that includes many naturalised British citizens who appear under the UK national category in prison data. Direct comparison of the foreign-born population share to the prison share conflates two different measures and should be avoided.
Sources & caveats
Data sources and limitations
Primary sources
Notes & caveats
- Prison and conviction data record nationality (citizenship), not country of birth. Many foreign-born individuals are naturalised British citizens and appear in the UK national category.
- Rates in the violence section are indicative estimates derived from published MoJ share data and ONS population denominators; they are not directly published figures.
- Comparisons do not control for age, sex, offence type, socioeconomic status, or migration route - all of which could affect the result.
- Data covers England & Wales only and does not include Scotland or Northern Ireland.
- The 2020 figures reflect reduced court throughput and prison admissions during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- This analysis does not assert a causal relationship between migration status and crime.